Volt Insight Briefing: China’s wind turbine exports, Albemarle’s lithium forecast, and a state takeover in batteries
Your weekly roundup of must-read stories in batteries, clean energy, and critical minerals
Happy Friday. Each week, I share the most important stories shaping batteries, clean energy, and critical minerals, curated from my reading across the sector.
In this week’s edition:
Wind power is actually booming, offshore wind even more so
China’s turbine exports are surging creating a tough choice for Europe
Albemarle increases its 2030 lithium demand forecast, but sodium-ion clouds the storage outlook
China’s state steps in to take over a key battery materials supplier Shanshan
Rare earth prices rise as EVs, robots, and eVTOL drive new demand
This week I attended the International Energy Week conference in London. One theme was dominant during the day I was there: electricity demand is rising fast driven by data centres just as curtailment of renewable power is also increasing, in Europe and in countries like Brazil. The obvious answers are more grid investment and, of course, more batteries.
Another takeaway: wind power is actually doing better than many people think, especially in Asia. Last year was a record year for new wind capacity, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), which was at the conference.
Offshore wind, in particular, is expected to boom, which will mean more demand for rare earth magnets as well as other commodities.
GWEC forecasts that offshore wind installations will grow from 8 GW in 2024 to 34 GW in 2030—a 325% increase by the end of the decade. China National Offshore Oil Co. plans to boost its offshore wind capacity by about 40% this year, according to Bloomberg, using turbines from Ming Yang.
A big question for Europe is whether to allow Chinese wind turbines into its market or even allow Chinese companies to manufacture them locally.
Aman Yang, vice president of Ming Yang, told the conference that the company could lower the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) by 30% if it were allowed to bring its floating offshore wind technology to Europe. Ming Yang is waiting on UK government approval to build a turbine factory in Scotland, but Yang gave no update when asked about the status of the project.
“Without local factories, it is difficult to achieve a true victory overseas. The era of conquering the world through pure trade is over,” Qin Haiyan, Secretary-General of the Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA), was recently quoted by Caixin as saying. China’s turbine makers don’t just want to export from China, they want to build factories in Europe and elsewhere.
Top Stories This Week
The rise of China’s wind turbine exports
In 2025, exports of wind turbine units grew by 48.7% to 8 gigawatts (GW) with exports to Europe grew by 66% last year, according to the latest data from Qin Haiyan, Secretary-General of the Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA).
Qin also stated that by the end of 2025, China's cumulative wind turbine export capacity exceeded 28 GW, according to Caixin. Compared to the 2 GW recorded at the end of 2015, this represents a 13-fold increase over the past decade.
This represents a tricky situation for Europe - go with cheaper turbines, or support Europe’s homegrown industry?
At the conference dinner last night the founder of Chinese turbine maker Envision, Zhang Lei, was pointed in his remarks about how critics of China see cheap renewable energy technology as “overcapacity” when actually it was a gift for the world that would unlock abundant energy. He talked of the world creating a “new civilisation” with clean energy.
It was an appealing notion, especially after a glass of wine. Unfortunately, that’s not the world we live in today. And wind is the one clean energy sector where Europe has leading companies such as Vestas.
This month the European Commission opened an investigation into China’s turbine maker Goldwind over whether it received subsidies that could distort the EU market. The EU said:
The possible foreign subsidies include grants, preferential tax measures, and preferential financing in the form of loans. The Commission has preliminary concerns that these foreign subsidies may improve Goldwind's competitive position in the internal market and may negatively affect competition for the supply of wind turbines and related services in the EU.
It is a tough dilemma for Europe. But I always think it’s worth remembering how European wind turbine companies were treated in China. Denmark provided some of the first wind turbines to China, as this brilliant FT piece pointed out. China later imported European turbines.
But in 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission said wind farms had to buy equipment in which at least 70 percent of the value was domestically manufactured. Combined with other benefits for local wind turbine manufacturers European wind turbine makers lost market share. Today they account for less than 1% of the Chinese domestic market, though they also export from China.
